Gentherm Inc (THRM)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 delivered product revenues of $375.1M (+3.2% q/q, -0.2% y/y) with adjusted EBITDA margin at 12.2% (vs 11.1% in Q1), and GAAP diluted EPS of $0.02 impacted by $18.9M net unrealized FX losses; adjusted diluted EPS was $0.54 .
- Against S&P Global consensus, revenue was a clear beat ($375.1M vs $363.4M*), while EPS modestly missed ($0.54 vs $0.582*); EBITDA was slightly above consensus on an adjusted basis though consensus tracks EBITDA differently* .
- Full-year guidance narrowed: product revenue range lifted at the midpoint ($1.43B–$1.5B), adjusted EBITDA margin range tightened to 11.7%–12.5%, and capex reduced to $55M–$65M .
- Commercial momentum remains robust: $620M of new automotive awards in Q2 (>$1B YTD), including full comfort solutions across Ford’s next-gen F-Series; liquidity rose to $416M; net leverage ~0.5x; $10M buyback executed .
- Near-term stock catalysts: revenue beat and raised midpoint, Ford F-Series content win, and Q4 margin expansion focus; watch FX volatility and tariff recovery timing (≈15 bps margin headwind) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Secured $620M of new awards in Q2 (>$1B YTD), highlighted by Ford’s next-gen F-Series platform; “full comfort solution provider” content spanning heat, ventilation, lumbar, and massage across F-150/F-250/F-350 .
- Automotive Climate and Comfort Solutions (A&CS) revenue +3.8% y/y (or +2.5% ex-FX), outperforming S&P Global’s LV production by 10 bps in relevant markets; strength in North America/Europe .
- Strategic adjacency wins (commercial vehicles thermal solutions; valves in power sports) and China mix shifting toward domestic OEMs; “launch of steering wheel heat with hands-on detection” at Xiaomi and Ram 1500 thermal control unit .
Management quote: “We secured all of the heat, ventilation, lumbar, and massage systems on Ford's next generation F-150, F-250, and F-350 platforms, making us the full comfort solution provider on one of the most significant platforms in the market.”
What Went Wrong
- Gross margin fell 180 bps y/y to 23.9% due to higher material costs (unfavorable mix), higher labor, and footprint realignment expenses; adjusted EBITDA margin declined y/y to 12.2% .
- GAAP net income dropped to $0.5M (from $18.9M y/y) driven by net unrealized FX losses of $18.9M; GAAP diluted EPS $0.02 vs $0.60 y/y .
- Asia weighed on performance; underexposure to China domestic OEMs (being addressed), while tariff pass-through timing and dilution added ~15 bps headwind to margins .
Financial Results
Quarterly Performance vs Prior Periods and Estimates
Results vs S&P Global Consensus (Selected)
Counts: EPS estimates = 5*, Revenue estimates = 5*.
Segment and Product Category Breakdown (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024)
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Management expects Q3 to be “roughly in line” with Q2 despite industry forecasts of a sequential LV production decline; margin improvement targeted for Q4 via operational initiatives .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our Automotive New Business Awards reached over $1 billion year-to-date... continued innovation, technology leadership, and strong customer relationships.”
- “We secured all of the heat, ventilation, lumbar, and massage systems on Ford's next generation F-150, F-250, and F-350...”
- “Automotive climate and comfort solutions outperformed actual light vehicle production... weighed down by Asia.”
- “Pulsa.A... gaining traction... unmatched in the market; expect profitable incremental growth...”
- “We have narrowed the adjusted EBITDA margin range to 11.7% - 12.5%... reduced capex to $55M - $65M...”
Q&A Highlights
- Guidance cadence: Q3 expected similar to Q2; margin expansion targeted in Q4 via operational improvements rather than mix/vendor changes .
- Ford F-Series award: Full comfort solutions portfolio; continuation of content from prior platform; sourced pre seat-supplier selection due to OEM-direct approach .
- Adjacent markets: Power sports valves (single OEM across three platforms); commercial vehicle thermal solutions (heavy truck and last-mile van); motion furniture and two-wheelers in proof-of-concept .
- China trajectory: Faster development cycles enable revenue within 6–18 months; target 60/40 global/domestic customer split next year .
- Tariffs: ~15 bps headwind in Q2; recovery mechanisms functioning, timing disconnects remain the key margin driver .
Estimates Context
- Revenue beat: Actual $375.1M vs $363.4M* consensus; reflects A&CS outperformance and FX tailwinds noted earlier in the year .
- EPS miss: Adjusted diluted EPS $0.54 vs $0.582* consensus; GAAP EPS pressured by $18.9M net unrealized FX losses; margin headwinds from tariff timing/pass-through dilution (~15 bps) .
- EBITDA: Adjusted EBITDA $45.9M vs $43.2M* consensus; note consensus tracks EBITDA and may not be strictly comparable to the company’s adjusted EBITDA definition .
Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
Where estimates may adjust: Raised revenue midpoint and steady Q3 outlook could lift revenue forecasts; continued FX volatility and tariff timing may temper margin/EPS estimates; management’s Q4 operational improvement focus may support H2 margin revisions .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Revenue execution stronger than feared: clear beat vs consensus on Q2 revenues and raised FY midpoint; monitor sustainability amid industry LV production declines .
- EPS pressured by FX volatility and tariff timing; adjusted margin recovery underway with Q4 targeted improvements—position sizing should consider near-term EPS variability .
- Commercial momentum intact: $620M Q2 awards and Ford F-Series content reaffirms platform leadership; Pulsa.A traction indicates mix shift toward higher-value comfort solutions .
- China strategy gaining traction: accelerated wins with domestic OEMs should reduce regional underperformance and improve growth visibility over 12–24 months .
- Capex discipline and operational focus: capex cut to $55M–$65M and process standardization support FCF and margin expansion; attractive for medium-term thesis .
- Liquidity and leverage provide flexibility: $416M liquidity and ~0.5x net leverage enable opportunistic capital allocation, including repurchases and M&A .
- Trading setup: Near-term catalysts include investor confidence from revenue beat/guidance midpoint raise and Ford platform win; watch FX and tariff headlines for EPS swings .
Values retrieved from S&P Global* (consensus metrics and counts).